The Knicks picked the right year to tank in that Zion Williamson is the top prize. They also picked the wrong year to tank in that 2019 will be the first year that the worst overall team by record won’t have the best odds of landing the first overall pick.
In years prior, the team that finished with the worst record in the NBA had a 25 percent chance of landing at No. 1. Under the new anti-tank lottery rules, those odds have decreased to 14.0 percent. It’s a monumental drop-off. In fact the Cavs and Suns will have the same odds as the Knicks to nab No. 1 and the Bulls will still have a 12.5 percent shot. Even a team like the Wizards will have a 9 percent chance at landing Zion despite finishing with the sixth worst record.
No doubt, there will be considerable movement at the top of the draft.
For the sake of randomness, we used the Tankathon.com Draft Lottery simulator 10 times and wound up with the following order. It’s the Bulls jumping to No. 1 and the Knicks falling to No. 4.
We also looked at how likely it was that the Lakers would jump to the top spot and no doubt it will be difficult. Using the lottery simulator, we didn’t have the Lakers getting the No. 1 overall pick until the 48th time we used it.
Here is a two round mock based on the order we saw most.
1. Chicago Bulls: Zion Williamson, PF, Duke
2. Washington Wizards: Ja Morant, PG, Murray State
3. Dallas Mavericks: RJ Barrett, SG, Duke
4. New York Knicks: Rui Hachimura, SF, Gonzaga
5. Atlanta Hawks: Jarrett Culver, SG, Texas Tech
6. Cleveland Cavaliers: DeAndre Hunter, SF, Virginia
7. Phoenix Suns: Keldon Johnson, SG, Kentucky
8. New Orleans Pelicans: Coby White, SG, North Carolina
9. Boston Celtics: Cameron Reddish, SG, Duke
10. Minnesota Timberwolves: KZ Okpala, SG, Stanford
11. Los Angeles Lakers: Nassir Little, SF, North Carolina
12. Charlotte Hornets: Jaxson Hayes, PF, Texas
13. Miami Heat: Charles Bassey, C, Western Kentucky
14. Boston Celtics: Bruon Fernando, C, Maryland
15. Orlando Magic: Darius Garland, PG, Vanderbilt
16. Brooklyn Nets: Nickeil Alexander Walker, SG, Virginia Tech
17. Detroit Pistons: Tyler Herro, SG, Kentucky
18. San Antonio Spurs: Goga Bitadze, C, Republic of Georgia
19. Oklahoma City Thunder: Sekou Doumbouya, SF, France
20. Boston Celtics: PJ Washington, PF, Kentucky
21. Indiana Pacers: Romeo Langford, SG, Indiana
22. Boston Celtics: Daniel Gafford, PF, Arkansas
23. Utah Jazz: Brandon Clarke, PF, Gonzaga
24. Philadelphia 76ers: Bol Bol, C, Oregon
25. Portland Trail Blazers: Naz Reid, C, LSU
26. Cleveland Cavaliers: Kevin Porter, SG, USC
27. Brooklyn Nets: Dylan Windler, SG, Belmont
28. Golden State Warriors: Jordan Nwora, SF, Louisville
29. San Antonio Spurs: Moses Brown, C, UCLA
30. Milwaukee Bucks: Kris Wilkes, SF, UCLA
31. Brooklyn Nets: Ky Bowman, PG, Boston College
32. Phoenix Suns: Ty Jerome, PG, Virginia
33. Orlando Magic: Admiral Schofield, SF, Tennessee
34. Philadelphia 76ers: Carsen Edwards, PG, Purdue
35. Atlanta Hawks: Jalen McDaniels, PF, San Diego State
36. Dallas Mavericks: Jalen Lecque, PG, NC State
37. Chicago Bulls: Chuma Okeke, SF, Auburn
38. Denver Nuggets: Talen Horton-Tucker, SG, Iowa State
39. New Orleans Pelicans: Cameron Johnson, SF, North Carolina
40. Atlanta Hawks: Miye Oni, SG, Yale
41. Sacramento Kings: Grant Williams, PF, Tennessee
42. Atlanta Hawks: Adam Mokoka, SG, France
43. Minnesota Timberwolves: Brian Bowen, SF, USA
44. Philadelphia 76ers: Eric Paschall, SF, Villanova
45. Sacramento Kings: Aric Holman, PF, Mississippi State
46. Orlando Magic: Jaylen Nowell, PG, Washington
47. Detroit Pistons: Tacko Fall, C, Central Florida
48. San Antonio Spurs: Isaiah Roby, SF, Nebraska
49. Charlotte Hornets: Chris Clemons, PG, Campbell
50. Los Angeles Clippers: Aubrey Dawkins, SF, Central Florida
51. Indiana Pacers: Terance Mann, SG, Florida State
52. Memphis Grizzlies: Jontay Porter, C, Missouri
53. Utah Jazz: Makai Mason, PG, Baylor
54. Philadelphia 76ers: Matt Morgan, SG, Cornell
55. Los Angeles Clippers: Tyler Cook, PF, Iowa
56. New York Knicks: Udoka Azubuike, C, Kansas
57. Charlotte Hornets: Luka Samanic, PF, Croatia
58. Golden State Warriors: Darius Bazley, SF, USA
59. Toronto Raptors: Robert Franks, SF, Washington State
60. Milwaukee Bucks: Matisse Thybulle, SG, Washington