The Midwest Region feels like Illinois’ to lose, as the Fighting Illini are fresh off a Big Ten title victory over Ohio State this past Sunday.
Rattling off seven straight wins to finish their season, they now have the third-best odds to reach the Final Four at +130, behind fellow 1-seeds Gonzaga (-260) and Baylor (+110).
Spearheaded by two All-Americans in Ayo Dosunmu (20.7 ppg) and Kofi Cockburn (17.6 ppg), the Illini will welcome in the 16-seeded Drexel Dragons of the CAA before a second-round date with the winner of an 8/9 matchup between Loyola-Chicago and Georgia Tech.
No. 8 Loyola-Chicago (-5.5) vs No. 9 Georgia Tech
This line initially opened at around 2 points in favor of the 8-seed, but quickly jumped to 5.5 upon the news that ACC Player of the Year Moses Wright will miss the game due to a positive COVID test.
Just a week removed from an ACC championship, the Jackets now find themselves hamstrung, as they’ll have to rely heavily on their backcourt tandem of Jose Alvarado and Michael Devoe.
Alvarado, the heart and soul of this Yellow Jacket team, received First Team All-ACC honors beside Wright, leading the country in steals at three per game.
Despite their peskiness and resiliency, the absence of Wright from the lineup will be too much to overcome on Friday, as the Ramblers are a better team than their Final Four rendition from 2018.
Top 10 in both KenPom and NET, Loyola’s defense will be the deciding factor in this one.
At 2nd in defensive efficiency — giving up a measly 55.5 points per game to opponents — it’s hard to see how Tech keeps up with the Ramblers on offense.
An Illinois/Loyola second-round showdown should make for quite the storyline.
The Pick: Loyola-Chicago -5.5
No. 5 Tennessee (-8.5) vs No. 12 Oregon State
Tennessee was an inconsistent mess in 2021, which of course, was good enough for a 5-seed in this year’s tournament.
Unable to put together a 3-game win streak in over two months, the Vols faltered down the stretch, finishing a pedestrian 8-7 after starting the season 10-1.
Waiting for the Vols are the Oregon State Beavers, who went on a shocking run in last week’s Pac-12 tournament to snatch an automatic bid in the big dance.
Picked to finish last in the conference per the preseason polls, the Beavs are quite the Cinderella story.
They were 19-9 against the spread, which includes a handful of outright wins against tournament teams like USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Colorado.
When you parlay their momentum with Tennessee’s inconsistencies, I believe this is a primed spot for a 12/5 upset, as history shows there’s usually at least one per year, if not more.
There’s been only five years where a 12-seed hasn’t advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament, making this a profitable spot for Oregon State backers.
What I like too, is that this is the one 12/5 upset no one seems to see coming.
The Pick: Oregon State +8.5, +350 ML
No. 4 Oklahoma State (-7.5) vs No. 13 Liberty
The story of the college basketball season resides in Stillwater, Oklahoma, where freshmen sensation Cade Cunningham led the Cowboys to a super impressive 20-8 record en route to a No. 4 seed.
While Cunningham (20.2 ppg) is the story, he’s had plenty of help along the way, getting solid production out of backcourt members Avery Anderson III (11.7 ppg), Isaac Likekele (9.6 ppg) and Rondel Walker (8.1 ppg).
Head coach Mike Boynton has suddenly become a frontrunner for Naismith Coach of the Year honors, as he’s done a tremendous job with this young Cowboy bunch.
However, this Liberty team should not be overlooked, as this line is a modest 7.5 for a reason.
The Flames are a gifted offensive team, boasting strong shooting numbers across the board. They’re 4th in the country in EFG%, 10th in 3PT%, and 20th in FT%.
This line seems fishy to me, but I’m going to fall for the trap regardless, as I think Cunningham will be far and away the best player on the floor, taking over down the stretch.
Pokes by 10.
The Pick: Oklahoma State -7.5
No. 6 San Diego State (-3) vs No. 11 Syracuse
This is my personal favorite matchup of the first round, as it’s always fun when Syracuse comes in as a double-digit seed.
Jim Boeheim is no stranger to the bright lights, as his program has surprisingly fared better as an underdog recently.
The last two times ‘Cuse was a double-digit seed they made the Sweet 16 in 2018, and Final Four in 2016 — so take that as you may.
Buddy Boeheim is one of the best shooters in the country and can single-handedly carry the Orange on offense when needed.
Moreover, and I know this has become a college hoops cliche of sorts, ‘Cuse’s 2-3 zone has, and always will be a difficult thing to prepare for on such short notice.
The Aztecs are really good — coming into this contest winners of 14 straight, but they’ve only beat two tournament teams all season, and both are 11-seeds (UCLA and Utah State).
This one will likely come down to the wire, and I think San Diego States inexperience in close games will hurt them down the stretch, propelling the Orange to yet another first-round upset.
The Pick: Syracuse +3, +140 ML
No. 3 West Virginia (-13) vs No. 14 Morehead State
The Mountaineers come into this contest as the biggest favorite of any 3-seed, which is surprising given their recent trajectory.
This isn’t your typical West Virginia team, as Bob Huggins’ group has done it with offense this season.
They’re 11th in the country in offensive efficiency, averaging a shade over 77 points per game, and are led by NBA prospect and potential first-round pick Miles McBride, who’s averaging 15.4 points per game on the season.
However, if they are to make a deep run, they’ll have to tighten it up considerably on the defensive end, as they’re just 226th in the country in scoring defense.
Although I like the prospects of West Virginia’s draw, Morehead State should be able to keep this one under the 13-point threshold. The OVC champs upended top-seeded Belmont in the tournament final, finishing the season an impressive 23-7.
I think their ability to defend the 3-point line should help them keep this within single digits for most of the night, before the Mountaineers eventually pull away late.
The Pick: Morehead State +13
No. 7 Clemson (+1.5) vs No. 10 Rutgers
This line is a bit of a head-scratcher, as the Scarlet Knights come into this matchup as slight favorites despite their No. 10 seed.
Regardless, expect a closely contested rock fight Friday night, as both teams will want to keep this game in the half court.
Rutgers, who is making their first tournament appearance since 1991, are headlined by backcourt battery mates Ron Harper Jr. (15.4 ppg) and Jacob Young (14.4 ppg), as they’ve been nothing short of exceptional for the Knights all season long.
These two are the anchors for head coach Steve Pikiell offensively, and I think there’s a good chance they’ll be the best players on the floor come Friday.
When in doubt, always take the team getting better guard play.
Rutgers advances.
The Pick: Rutgers -1.5
No. 2 Houston (-20) vs No. 15 Cleveland State
The Houston Cougars are being vastly overlooked in this region, something Kelvin Sampson’s group has become accustomed to in recent years.
Another AAC championship banner comes with a grain of salt for the Cougs, as the conference has struggled to consistently produce at-large bids (just one this year).
Despite their 24-3 record, Houston only boasts 2 Quad I wins, with one coming over Texas Tech back in November.
Their SOS (106th) is worrisome as we get deeper into the tournament, but for now, feel free to pencil the Cougars into your Sweet 16, as they should have no problem dismantling Cleveland State before meeting up with the winner of the aforementioned 7/10 matchup between Rutgers and Clemson.
The Pick: Houston -20
