Bolaris Weather Watch: Frigid grip eases, now some snow

Brutal cold—the kind that makes your eye’s tear, your face sting, your nose run sent us running for warm cover this past Valentine’s weekend (hopefully you were wrapped around someone you truly love) and now on this President’s day we are looking at some snow that will spread across Philadelphia and New York city during the afternoon, and this will lead to slick and snow covered roadways by later Monday afternoon and into the early evening.

Boston will not see any snow until after 5 p.m. today.

Luckily the storm system producing the snow will be taking a track west of Philadelphia, New York city and Boston, putting the major metro hubs in the eastern milder flank of this developing storm and when the heaviest of the precipitation arrives on early Tuesday it will fall in the form of rain, that will will come down heavy at times. Strong southerly winds will send temperatures soaring into the 50’s on Tuesday meaning in some places it will actually be 60 degrees warmer than it was on early Sunday morning.

Philadelphia: Accumulations by 7 p.m. Monday: 1-2 inches, before mixing with sleet and changing to rain. (Northwest suburbs 2-4 inches before the changeover)

NYC: 1-2 inches by 7 p.m., before the changeover to all rain (2-5 inches Northwest New Jersey)

Boston: Perhaps an inch after 9 p.m., 2-4 inches in the hills before the changeover )

Time Frame to watch for the Northeast:

February 22- March 1.

A deep trough will once again set up the east, this will usher in another polar episode. The only question I have at this time will be the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). It does not go into the negative mode which decreases the odds of a major east coast snowstorm.

However the Arctic Oscillation goes strongly negative, which is one of the ingredients that increase storm potential and opens the flood gates for polar outbreaks.

So as it stands today, calling for a low to moderate threat of significant to major snow for this time frame.

New York City:

Polarmageddon has released it’s grip, but now in its wake we have some snow to deal with. The light snow will be arriving after 2 p.m. Monday, and then becomes moderate for a while by late this afternoon. I’m not looking at a major snow event but enough to make travel become slick as many roadways should become snow covered after 4 p.m.

By 7 p.m. generally 1-3 inches will accumulate in and around the city, with as much as 5 inches in the hills of Northwest New Jersey.

Rain will take over for most by 9 p.m., with some lingering sleet and perhaps a brief period of freezing rain across the lower Hudson Valley and Northwest New Jersey.

Southerly winds will send temperatures soaring Tuesday into the 50’s at the same time rain will come down heavy at times.

Dry weather will return on Wednesday with readings in the 40’s.

Time frame to watch:

Feb 22 -March 1.

Polar episodes, along with increased storm potential.

Boston:

It was the Valentines day Polarmageddon as the Polar icebox sent temperatures tumbling to the coldest levels since 1957.

Records for Valentine’s morning…

Boston -9

Hartford -12

Providence -9

Worcester -16

The historic cold will ease Monday and much of the day will remain dry.

After 6 p.m. Monday evening light snow will spread across the region, and by 9 p.m. – 10 p.m. tonight we should see some light accumulations; around an inch or so here in Boston before the changeover briefly to sleet and then all rain.

The hills to the North and West could see 2-3 inches before the changeover.

We will be on the eastern flank of a developing storm system meaning strong southerly winds will lead to much milder temperatures and rain that will come down heavy at times. Potential of localized street and highway flooding is possible.

Next time frame to watch: February 22 – March 1.

Deep trough forms in the east as polar air begins to move back in.

East coast storm potential increases.

Low to moderate threat of significant to major snow.

Philadelphia:

Well on the heels of the coldest air mass of the season, we have some snow to deal with and I guess you can say not bad timing as most of us have off as we continue to defrost from this past weekend’s Polarmageddon.

Light snow will arrive around noon Monday, and then become moderate for a time this afternoon. This will lead to our roadways becoming slick and snow covered as we move into the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Looking for about 1-2 inches of snow in the city by 7 p.m. before the changeover to sleet and then all rain.

Parts of Chester, Northern Montgomery, and Bucks could see 2 – 4 inches before the mix goes to all rain.

Rain heavy at times for the entire region on Tuesday along with much warmer temperatures, into the 50’s.

The rain moves out later Tuesday night, setting up a dry Wednesday with readings in the 40’s.

The next major shift in the atmosphere will take place during the February 22 to March 1 time frame.

Polar air and snow threat increases.