Bolaris’ Weather Watch: March to come in like a little lamb

The months of December, January and February are considered the winter season as far as climatologists go, which means the meteorological winter ends today.

For everyone else winter ends on the vernal equinox of March 20 – popularly known as the official arrival of spring.

That doesn’t mean we can’t get hit with a rare snowstorm in April, or have a wet snow falling on opening day of baseball season. It’s been a strange winter, Philadelphia and New York city will go down as one of the warmest winters on record at the same time Central Park was snow slugged with the second biggest snowstorm on record on January 23-24 with a whopping 26.8 inches of blizzard snow at the same time Philly picked a seasons total of 22.3 inches and Boston dodged the snow bull-eye with a little over 8 inches.

Let’s not forget Valentine’s Day weekend, when a record-setting cold air mass (the coldest since 1957 in Boston) invaded the Northeast as we scrambled for warmth in our loved ones arms, hopefully your partner, on a side note I would anticipate a baby boom 9 months from that bitter February weekend… just saying.

Unseasonably mild temperatures will continue to be with us through the first half of this week. It certainly was a beautiful Sunday. March will arrive tomorrow like a sweet little lamb as temperatures through most of the Northeast I95 corridor will hang out in the 50’s to near 60.

The big question this week is for this Friday March 4, as computer models have been all over the place with the placement of an east coast storm and the potential of heavy snow for some. The European model has been the most intense with placement close to the coast, meaning a significant impact, especially for coastal New Jersey and Long Island.

The American model (GFS), not so much as it has been waffling from a powerful storm along the Carolina’s on Friday morning, to absolutely nothing. Looking at other models and global factors, right now I do not see a serious threat, with the chances of significant snow on Friday at low levels. For Boston I see a minimal threat. I will continue to watch it closely and if anything changes you can always catch my thinking on Twitter @weathersavior.

Boston:

Back to the grind Monday is looking pretty good, just the chance of a passing shower or two, most of us will remain dry as temps will remain on the milder side into the mid-50’s. March will arrive tomorrow with good deal of sun along with readings kissing 50 degrees. Getting over the hump on Wednesday, grab the umbrella as you will get wet, and it will be quite windy as well, still on the mild side, just above 50.

Back into the chill on Thursday as the mercury drops back into the 30’s, so grab the coat. On Friday some models strongly suggesting a storm to take shape along the Carolina coastline (the European model is the most intense and closest to the coast), however with the North Atlantic oscillation being in the positive phase, this should allow the storm to escape out to sea. The chances of significant snow at this time remain quite low.

New York City:

After a beautiful Sunday, look for a continuation of mild temps for today, although a few scattered morning showers may dampen your Monday spirits, not that they were that high for a Monday anyway.

March will come in like the proverbial putty cat on Tuesday with a good deal of sun and temps rising into the lower 50’s. On Wednesday grab the umbrella, as I do have morning showers in the forecast, but temps still on the mild side in the lower 50’s. A cool down for your Thursday, back into the 40’s. The only day of concern this week will be on Friday as computer models have been all over the place with a strong east coast storm to develop near the Carolinas come Friday morning. Right now I see a track out to sea and not up the coast.

Philly:

After a glorious Sunday, we can expect more in the way of mild temperatures for today, although you could be dodging a few rain drops during the morning hours with a return to sunshine this afternoon and readings well up into the 50’s. The first day of March will purr as the thermometer heads towards the 60-degree mark. A few showers on Wednesday could rearrange your hairdo, but still on the mild side.

A Thursday cool down as we drop back into the seasonably chilly 40’s. Friday I’ll be watching for a possible coastal storm development, near the Carolina coast, and what impact it will or not have for us. For now, I see a low chance of significant snow event for the Philadelphia region.