Heading into Tuesday night’s Game 2, the Boston Celtics clearly have a legitimate shot to win their NBA Eastern Conference second round series after humiliating the eight-point favorite Milwaukee Bucks 112-90 Sunday afternoon.
That’s a 30-point cover! Sharps who bet the Bucks to win the series were scratching their heads through Sunday lunch, as were those who laid the points at earlier lines of -7 or -7.5. Though, many old-school dog lovers did find the full eight points appealing in the hours before tipoff.
Obviously, the points ultimately didn’t matter. Boston did what it wanted to do on both sides of the floor, winning two-point shooting 61% to 36%, three-point shooting 42% to 33%, and rebounding 51-44.
Head coach Brad Stevens came up with a great defensive game plan for neutralizing (and frustrating) Milwaukee sensation Giannis Antetokounmpo. Al Horford executed it to perfection, while also adding in 20 points on the offensive end.
Now the ball is in Milwaukee head coach Mike Budenholzer’s court. What worked so well during the regular season, and against playoff pretender Detroit in the first round, will be irrelevant against Boston if he can’t counter.
Betting markets are assuming there will be a counter. That’s one of the basic tenets of “the zig-zag theory,” where you bet the previous game’s loser against the spread the next time out. Game 2’s point spread didn’t drop significantly despite Boston’s dominance. The global opener was Milwaukee -7.5.
The Over/Under did show a big adjustment. Game 1’s betting total closed at 223.5. After the teams combined Sunday to score just 201, the market moved downward to an opener of 220.5. Boston’s played four Unders in five playoff games so far thanks to its emphasis on defense and controlling pace.
Some of you may be wondering why we only said the Celtics “have a legitimate shot.” Doesn’t breaking serve on the road put them in control of their own destiny? Aren’t they now the series favorite?
No. Projected prices would still suggest Boston will lose a home game to Milwaukee. The Celtics will be small home favorites in Games 3, 4 and 6 (if necessary). Small home favorites win straight up just over 50% of the time rather than all the time.
That said, Boston can change the mind of the market and the percentages by winning again in Milwaukee Tuesday. Two service breaks by a smart, experienced playoff foe would probably be too much to overcome for the inexperienced, and suddenly humbled Bucks.
Get the latest on betting markets direct from Las Vegas when you “Follow the Money” with Mitch and Pauly on VSiN and NESN.
