For this week’s selection we go to the stacked Midwest Regional for the 7-10 matchup in Jacksonville, 7th seeded, Wofford, from the Southern Conference, winners of 20 straight games, taking on Big East Conference Tournament runner-up, 10th seeded, Seton Hall.
Wofford is one of the Cinderella, darling selections in office bracket pools, as people get enamored with small conference upstarts who can shoot three point shots. Seton Hall is typically a scrappy bunch that plays very hard and never quits.
Wofford is on a 7-0 ATS run and is 3-0 SU and ATS on a neutral floor. The Terriers are 2nd in Nation in Offensive 3pt FG Percentage (41.6%) and 12th in Nation in scoring, averaging 83 per game. They are led by sharp shooting, Senior guard, Fletcher Magee, who the Pirates must contain if they have any chance to win. Magee averages 20.5 ppg and is 42.8% from 3 and 90.7% from the free throw line. Magee is flanked by Junior guard, Nathan Hoover who shoots 45.7% beyond the arc and Senior forward, Cameron Jackson shooting 39% from 3 and averages 14.6 ppg. Wofford has played 5 power conference teams this year, going 1-4 SU & ATS, with their win coming against South Carolina. In other words, the Terriers won’t be intimidated. First round favorites from -1 to -3 are 38-41 SU and 28-47-4 ATS since 2009.
Seton Hall comes in 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their L5, including two wins over Marquette and victories over Georgetown and Villanova. Their only loss came on Saturday to Villanova in Big East Championship, 74-72. The Pirates are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS on a neutral floor and have tightened up their perimeter defense recently and will need a big effort in that department to win this game. They will count on Sophomore, Myles Cale, to shadow and contain Magee. Cale will look for help from Junior, Quincy McKnight, who tweaked his groin but has declared himself 100% for this game. McKnight held Marquette’s star, Markus Howard, to 10-46 shooting from beyond the arc in their 3 games this season. Myles Powell is Hall’s heartbeat and the Junior guard will have to shine in this one and play at least to his 23 point average. The Pirates are 11-5 as an Underdog and already have a win over Kentucky, who they would meet in the next round, assuming both advance.
Since the Tournament expanded in 1985, 10 seeds are 52-84 (.382) over 7 seeds in the opening round. I am siding with the scrappy squad from the higher pedigree conference in this one as I expect this game to very close and grabbing 3 points works for me in this situation. I believe Hall’s perimeter defenders will harass Magee & Co. into some bad looks and keep them off balance, which will keep the game close and winnable in the end.
Pick – SETON HALL +3
