We go through this every year. The brunt of the fantasy community goes ga-ga for a rookie QB in August, and by mid-September they’re kicking themselves for wasting a high pick.
Kyler Murray is “that guy” this year. But you only need to look at recent fantasy history to see that rookie QBs are not rookie RBs. Rookie RBs can have sensational fantasy years right out of the gate as we saw last year with Saquon Barkley.
As for the Murray comparison to Patrick Mahomes, it’s important to remember that Mahomes had a full season to be a backup in the NFL and he started with a team that had a stable coaching staff and roster. Whether you think Kliff Kingsbury is the second coming or not, you would be hard-pressed to find a more dysfunctional franchise in the NFL right now. Kingsbury could ultimately right the ship, but it’s not going to happen overnight.
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Remember, that at this time last year – many thought Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen would light the fantasy world on fire. Mayfield was the best of the bunch … and finished tied with Eli Manning for fantasy points. Allen finished 20th. Darnold finished 26th.
In 2017, Deshaun Watson flashed several times but was far from a reliable fantasy QB. In Week 1 against Jacksonville during his rookie year he threw for just 102 yards and rushed for just 16. In Week 2 against Cincinnati he passed for only 125 yards and ran for 76. In Week 3 against New England, he finally went over 300 yards but also threw two picks.
In other words, you shouldn’t expect much from rookie QBs early in their inaugural year.
In 2016, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz did not register in the top 21 of top scoring fantasy QBs.
Jameis Winston was really only the last rookie QB to do anything fantasy-wise as he ranked 16th in QB fantasy scoring in 2015 … but still, that’s 16th!
The 16th and 17th ranked fantasy QB on most lists for 2019 is Jimmy Garoppolo and Mitchell Trubisky. Are you really going to draft one of those guys with a first or second round pick?
Look, Murray will most likely turn out to be a fine player. But he’s not going to win you your fantasy league in his first year in the league.
