Two of the best bets in the NFL for Week 11.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-5.5)
Moneyline: Falcons +205, Panthers -245
Betting Total: 49.5 points
Time (Eastern): 1 p.m.
The Atlanta Falcons delivered one of the more surprising results of the season when they beat the Saints as 13-point underdogs last week, but bettors should not expect lightning to strike twice when the Carolina Panthers play host to their division rival this Sunday.
The Falcons pass-heavy offense will become even more one-dimensional if halfback Devonta Freeman (ankle) can’t suit up. Second-stringer Ito Smith (concussion) is on the IR, so career backup Brian Hill (295 total yards since entering the league in 2017) is likely to be the starting running back. Carolina’s strength on defense is in their secondary, as they’re 11th in yards allowed per game through the air, so Matt Ryan could have a rough day at the office. The Panthers boast the NFL’s No. 1 pass rush with 36 sacks through Week 10.
Carolina didn’t cover against the Packers in snowy Green Bay last week but was less than a yard away from setting up a game-tying two-point conversion. Tailback Christian McCaffrey had another fine effort last Sunday (141 yards from scrimmage) and should take advantage of this matchup with an Atlanta defense that’s 25th in yards allowed per play.
Trends bettors should note that the Falcons are 5-16 against the spread in their last 21 road games, per Covers.com, while the Panthers have covered in four of their last five contests following a spread loss.
The play: Panthers spread
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-11.5)
Moneyline: Cardinals +455, 49ers -560
Betting Total: 45.5 points
Time (Eastern): 4:05 p.m.
When these teams last met on Halloween, the Arizona Cardinals covered as big home underdogs against the previously-undefeated San Francisco 49ers, who are licking their wounds following an OT loss to the Seahawks on Monday night. Bettors should expect the Cardinals, who are 5-1 against the spread in their last six overall, to give the embattled 49ers another good game.
Arizona brings a bottom-five defense by most metrics into this affair but San Francisco’s offense could be short a running back (Matt Brieda, ankle) and wide receiver (Emmanuel Sanders, ribs) along with star tight end George Kittle (knee). Meanwhile, the Cardinals can sic Kenyan Drake and David Johnson after the Niners’ 18th-rated rush defense, setting up quarterback Kyler Murray for another fine day through the air. The rookie signal caller was 17-of-24 for 241 yards and two TDs against San Fran just two weeks ago.
The play: Cardinals spread
