TOKYO (Reuters) -Japanese business confidence hit a nine-month low in the first quarter, a central bank survey showed, as companies took a hit from supply disruptions and surging raw material costs caused by the Ukraine crisis.
Companies expect conditions to worsen further three months ahead as rising input costs squeeze margins, the Bank of Japan’s closely-watched “tankan” survey showed on Friday.
The survey also showed companies expect inflation to hit 1.8% a year from now, up from 1.1% in the December poll and the highest forecast on record – highlighting Japan’s rising upward price pressure.
“The tankan highlighted a strong sense of caution among manufacturers, particularly automakers, over rising raw material costs and chip shortages,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
“The outlook is uncertain, too, due to the Ukraine crisis and slowing Chinese growth,” he said.
The tankan’s headline index gauging big manufacturers’ mood slipped to plus 14 in March from plus 17 in December, worsening for the first time in seven quarters and hitting the lowest level since June 2021. It exceeded market forecasts of plus 12.
Big non-manufacturers’ sentiment index also worsened for the first time in seven quarters at plus 9, down slightly from plus 10 three months ago but exceeding market forecasts of plus 5.
Food, auto and electric machinery makers saw sentiment worsen, as well as construction and retail sectors, in a sign of the wide-ranging hit from surging import costs.
An index gauging big manufacturers’ output prices rose to a 40-year high, the tankan showed, a sign more firms are putting higher price tags on their goods.
Big firms expect to increase capital spending plans by 2.2% for the current fiscal year that began in April, less than a market forecast for a 4.0% gain, the tankan showed.
The outcome will be among factors BOJ policymakers will scrutinise in producing fresh quarterly growth and inflation projections at their next meeting on April 27-28.
Soaring fuel and food prices blamed on the Ukraine war, coupled with rising import bills from a weak yen, have added to pain for households and Japan’s economy still reeling from the coronavirus pandemic’s hit.
Analysts expect Japan’s core consumer inflation to approach the central bank’s 2% target as early as in April, though the BOJ has said it will not respond to cost-push inflation with policy tightening.
(Reporting by Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Sam Holmes)
