A look at the day ahead from Sujata Rao.
Nasdaq futures are down almost 1% on Tuesday, making it likely the tech-heavy index will add to its year-to-date losses of around 4.5%. Having risen for 12 of the past 13 years, it is under heavy pressure from the prospect of higher interest rates and bond yields, more so than the broader S&P 500 index or MSCI’s global equity benchmark.
The 4.5% loss masks deeper falls — 29 shares have lost 10% or more already this year, according to Capital Economics.
Nasdaq futures positioning has shifted dramatically short, Citi analysts point out, noting that $2 billion worth of remaining long positions are deep in the red.
Those investors will be looking nervously towards bond markets, where two-year U.S. Treasury borrowing costs have risen above 1% for the first time since Feb. 2020. In Europe, German 10-year yields are close to bursting above 0% for the first time since mid-2019.
Inflation is front and centre, as crude oil prices hit seven-year prices. That’s good news for some — the Bank of Japan signalled earlier the country was finally emerging sustainably out of deflation — but the bond selloff is setting the stage for a dismal stock market session; most Asian bourses fell and Europe looks set to open weaker.
All eyes on central banks now. The U.S. Federal Reserve is now more or less priced to start lifting interest rates from March, Canada could move as early as next week while Britain’s forecast-beating labour data on Tuesday, makes it all but certain the Bank of England’s Feb 2 meeting will yield a hike.
Graphic: Nasdaq, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/akpezeydkvr/Pasted%20image%201642456967170.png Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:
-BOJ raises price outlook but maintains ultra-easy policy
-UK employers add record number of jobs
-Brent climbs to more than 7-year high on Mideast tensions, tight supply
–EU finance ministers meeting on minimum corporate tax, recovery fund, EU budget
-ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks
-Bank of France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks
-Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves speaks
-German ZEW
-U.S. earnings: BNY Mellon, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab
(Reporting by Sujata Rao; editing by Saikat Chatterjee)
