The Foreman Forecast: Tremors

Here are my three things to watch in politics.

GUN SHOW –Against the backdrop of another mass shooting, Congress will consider competing plans to reduce the violence. Four proposals have been forced to the floor by a Dem filibuster, but getting a vote and getting anything done are wildly different things.

Capitol Hill statisticians say the odds are slim to none that anything substantial will be approved, and even if there is a win in the Senate it is likely to become a loss in the House. Who will be watching closely? Hillary Clinton. She berated Barack Obama in 2008 for supporting more gun control measures, but now she is convinced the issue will play in the fall – especially with her base.

SEARCHING FOR THE BREXIT – Every economy wonk in D.C. will have binoculars pointing across the Atlantic for the Brexit vote. If the Brits bail out of the European Union, shock waves may roll through international markets and even Wall Street could get the shakes. Some are tossing around the “R” word – as in, localized or even global recession fears. It’s all very complicated and hard to predict, but the potential impact is real with consequences for your 401k… as if it hasn’t taken enough of a beating.

TRUMP UNPLUGGED – Two weeks ago Republicans were beating the drum for everyone to get behind Donald Trump. Now their presumptive nominee is tumbling in the polls, and some big name GOPers are acting like they’re desperately trying to end a bad blind date. Any attempt to dump Trump at the convention will be wildly risky, but you can bet we’ll hear a lot more talk about that this week.

Furthermore, I suspect GOP leaders will be putting new emphasis on the fight to keep the House and Senate, just in case the Oval Office can’t be wrestled from the Dems. Campaign slogan? How about “Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad!”

Tom Foreman is the author of My Year of Running Dangerously