After nailing our last three primetime picks (Lions +3.5 this past Monday, Patriots -16.5 last Thursday, 49ers -5 the previous Monday), we’ll look to keep the night train rolling this evening as the Chiefs take on the Broncos in Denver.
Denver is historically one of the toughest places to play in the NFL, and the Chiefs enter at a brutal time as Patrick Mahomes is banged up and coming off a second consecutive loss.
Conversely, the Broncos have put together back-to-back victories following an 0-4 start and a win Thursday would put them right back in the thick of things in a competitive AFC West.
Spread: Chiefs -3 (-115), Broncos +3 (-105)
Money line: Chiefs -166, Broncos +144
Over – Under: Over 49 (+100), Under 49 (-120)
The Chiefs defense was lit up by Deshaun Watson, Carlos Hyde, and the Texans this past Sunday – allowing 31 points – but they should find things much easier with old man Joe Flacco and the Broncos.
Flacco has been atrocious this season as he hasn’t posted a passer rating over 100 since Week 1. Don’t expect Flacco to find the fountain of youth against the Chiefs D despite their lowly reputation, as Kansas City isn’t horrible against the pass (19th in NFL, 244.3 yards per game).
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Bottom line is that Mahomes and the Chiefs are too talented to lose three straight games in this league. Their losses the past two weeks came against a pair of legit AFC teams in the Texans and Colts, and Denver is a big step below both of those two squads in terms of overall talent.
Another reason to like the Chiefs here is that they are 14-7 against the spread as road favorites over the past five years.
The play: Chiefs -3
