As expected, starting pitcher Sean Manaea opted out of the final year of his contract with the New York Mets, valued at $13.5 million.
A career season could not have come at a more perfect time for the 32-year-old, who reinvented himself to become the Mets’ ace during the second half of the 2024 season to help fuel them to an NLCS appearance.
Manaea pitched a career-high 181.2 innings, going 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA. Over his final 18 starts of the regular season, his ERA shrunk to a 3.02. It will line him up for a significant increase in his next contract as a viable starter rather than a cast-off working his way back into an MLB starting rotation, which is what he was when he signed with the Mets in free agency after spending the 2023 season with the San Francisco Giants.
At first glance, it appears he is willing to work with the Mets to hammer out a deal rather than look elsewhere.
“I love my time here. I love New York,” Manaea said after the Mets’ season-ending Game 6 NLCS loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. “I love the organization and all the people here, so I’d definitely love to be back.”
Initial prognostications suggest that the Mets will bring back one of Manaea or Luis Severino from free agency while potentially pursuing Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. Obviously, it will come down to dollars and cents, so what could a new deal for Manaea look like?
Looking at last season’s crop of free-agent pitchers, four arms loosely resemble Manaea’s age and numbers: Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Michael Wacha, and Seth Lugo.
In his age 34 season, Gray went 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA with the Minnesota Twins before joining the St. Louis Cardinals on a three-year, $75 million contract ($25 million annually).
Montgomery, who was 30 last season, became a hot commodity when he posted a 2.79 ERA in 11 starts down the stretch for the eventual-champion Texas Rangers, ending his season with a 10-11 record and a 3.20 ERA. A victim of being a Scott Boras client, he signed late in the offseason with the Arizona Diamondbacks for $25 million with a $22.5 million player option for next season.
At 31, Wacha went 14-4 with a 3.22 ERA with the San Diego Padres and used it to ink a two-year, $32 million deal with the Kansas City Royals ($16 million annually).
Lugo might have been the biggest bargain of all. After going 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA in his age 33 season with the San Diego Padres, he signed a three-year, $45 million ($15 million annually) deal with the Royals, where he put together a season worthy of AL Cy Young consideration (16-9, 3.00 ERA).
In search of the stability that comes with a multi-year deal and one last opportunity to get a solid payday before advancing into the wrong side of his 30s, Manaea could be looking for a three-to-four-year deal hovering near an average annual value of $20 million.
